CruiseFish Forum


    Yorktown Heights, NY, United States
    joined Feb 2014
    post 5/40
    cruiser #21032
    Validity of using previous year's price history to predict this year's price drops?

    I just booked Celebrity Summit to Bermuda for ths August (great price thanks to a Cruisefish alert). I checked last year's price history on Crusefish several weeks ago in an attempt to fogure out when the pricing would come down to a level that I wanted to pay. Last year, it seemed like there was a great sale around May 12th but this year, nothing. I booked yesterday because my TA had a good deal with free gratuties along with the beverage package from Celebrity, and a large amount of OBC (which got bumped by $100 thanks to a new offer from Celebrity today), but the price never got down to what it was last year.

    Anyway, this gets me to wondering if using the prior year's price history and expecting similar price drops at the same time this year is even a valid thing to do. Has anyone done this and had it work out OK? I should say that the really deep price drops came in mid-July last year, obviously long after final payment wa due. I had considered waiting for that but a) the perks I got booking yesterday made the total package attractively priced (odds are I would not have gotten the beverage package if I had waited until then and it was a special price, plus the free tips were this week only)), and b) my wife would have driven me crazy had I waited until July to book for August! I would have expected Bermuda pricing on Celebrity to be lower this year since they're competing with Freedom rather than Explorer out of Bayonne, with more cabins and a newer ship.

    I will say that looking at the price history from last year made me a much more knowledgable buyer in terms of pricing.

    joined Jan 2013
    post 8/17
    cruiser #13116
    Re: Validity of using previous year's price history to predict this year's price drops?

    I use the previous year's history to predict pricing up or down but in conjunction with total unsold cabins on a particular cruise.  Bear in mind that a ship sails full.  I think demand for any particular cruise will negate a price drop before the 70 - 75 day cancellation date.  I feel a price drop within the cancellation period will only occur if there are significant unsold cabins and then generally, there are none of the perks.

    Once you have the perks included for any cabin and bought at a good price, a price drop would have to be significant to compensate for the loss of perks. 

    joined Jun 2015
    post 1/1
    cruiser #32900
    Re: Validity of using previous year's price history to predict this year's price drops?

    I have seen more cruise lines offering more perks and/or OBC verses reducing their price. When they drop the price your perks and OBCs can be impacted if you chase that price.

    joined Dec 2012
    post 43/43
    cruiser #12839
    Re: Validity of using previous year's price history to predict this year's price drops?

    I may be onto something here on price timing. Wonder if anyone else has noticed this?

    We booked our August 2018 Holland America Lines cruise in January, about 8 months before departure, and the price has not gone down since then. I just researched seven other HAL cruises. Each reached the low price 8 or 9 months before departure. Some prices then went up.